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← Overview•Competitor History & IntelligencePredictive Pacing & SAR

Entrant Historical Projections`entrant_historical_projections`

Event-specific materialized pacing projections and volunteer safety badges for an entrant.

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Operational Purpose & Edge Invariants

Binds an athlete's historical performance capability to active course topography, elevation gain, and cutoff schedule. Calculates expected arrival windows (ETA ± sigma) for aid stations, flags cutoff risks, and provides Checkpoint Field Logger safety badges.

Relational Connections (2)

↑ Belongs ToentrantId

entrants →

Competitor entrant for whom this projection is calculated.

↑ Belongs TopersonId

people →

Underlying person whose athletic history generated this model.

Table Columns & Types (12)

entrant_historical_projections

Column	PostgreSQL Type	Constraints	Default	Documentation
id	uuid	NOT NULLPK	gen_random_uuid()	Unique projection identifier.
entrantId	uuid	NOT NULLFK -> entrants.idON DELETE CASCADEUNIQUE	—	Reference to the active entrant entry.
personId	uuid	NOT NULLFK -> people.idON DELETE CASCADE	—	Reference to the competitor person.
projectedFinishSeconds	integer	nullable	—	Predicted overall finish duration in seconds.
projectedPaceSecondsPerKm	double precision	nullable	—	Expected average course pace in seconds per kilometer.
projectedArrivalTimes	jsonb	nullable	—	Map of courseSplitId to expected arrival ETA timestamps and duration offsets.
confidenceBandLowSeconds	integer	nullable	—	10th percentile aggressive arrival estimate duration.
confidenceBandHighSeconds	integer	nullable	—	90th percentile conservative arrival estimate duration.
expectedCutoffRisk	boolean	NOT NULLIndexed	false	True if projected arrival at any split falls within 20 minutes of official cutoff.
volunteersSarSafetyBadge	text	nullable	—	Primary high-contrast field badge (e.g. CUTOFF_WATCH, FIRST_TIMER, ELEVATION_RISK).
projectionMethod	text	NOT NULL	'historical_pacing'	Algorithm identifier used to generate the model (e.g. minetti_metabolic, historical_pacing).
computedAt	timestamp with time zone	NOT NULL	now()	Timestamp when projection was materialized.

Database Indexes (3)